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Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.7 in England: Insights from linking epidemiological and genetic data
Volz, Mishra*, Chand et al
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.30.20249034
Abstract: The SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, now designated Variant of Concern 202012/01 (VOC) by Public Health England, originated in the UK in late Summer to early Autumn 2020. We examine epidemiological evidence for this VOC having a transmission advantage from several perspectives. First, whole genome sequence data collected from community-based diagnostic testing provides an indication of changing prevalence of different genetic variants through time. Phylodynamic modelling additionally indicates that genetic diversity of this lineage has changed in a manner consistent with exponential growth. Second, we find that changes in VOC frequency inferred from genetic data correspond closely to changes inferred by S-gene target failures (SGTF) in community-based diagnostic PCR testing. Third, we examine growth trends in SGTF and non-SGTF case numbers at local area level across England, and show that the VOC has higher transmissibility than non-VOC lineages, even if the VOC has a different latent period or generation time. Available SGTF data indicate a shift in the age composition of reported cases, with a larger share of under 20 year olds among reported VOC than non-VOC cases. Fourth, we assess the association of VOC frequency with independent estimates of the overall SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number through time. Finally, we fit a semi-mechanistic model directly to local VOC and non-VOC case incidence to estimate the reproduction numbers over time for each. There is a consensus among all analyses that the VOC has a substantial transmission advantage, with the estimated difference in reproduction numbers between VOC and non-VOC ranging between 0.4 and 0.7, and the ratio of reproduction numbers varying between 1.4 and 1.8. We note that these estimates of transmission advantage apply to a period where high levels of social distancing were in place in England; extrapolation to other transmission contexts therefore requires caution.
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Estimated transmissibility and severity of novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01 in England
Davies, Barnard, Jarvis et al
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248822
Abstract: A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, VOC 202012/01, emerged in southeast England in November 2020 and appears to be rapidly spreading towards fixation. We fitted a two-strain mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to observed COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital and ICU bed occupancy, and deaths; SARS-CoV-2 PCR prevalence and seroprevalence; and the relative frequency of VOC 202012/01 in the three most heavily affected NHS England regions (South East, East of England, and London). We estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. We were unable to find clear evidence that VOC 202012/01 results in greater or lesser severity of disease than preexisting variants. Nevertheless, the increase in transmissibility is likely to lead to a large increase in incidence, with COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths projected to reach higher levels in 2021 than were observed in 2020, even if regional tiered restrictions implemented before 19 December are maintained. Our estimates suggest that control measures of a similar stringency to the national lockdown implemented in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction number Rt to less than 1, unless primary schools, secondary schools, and universities are also closed. We project that large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur following easing of control measures. It may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to have an appreciable impact in suppressing the resulting disease burden.
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Early empirical assessment of the N501Y mutant strains of SARS-CoV-2 in the United Kingdom, October to November 2020
Leung, Shum, Leung et al
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.20.20248581
Abstract: Two new SARS-CoV-2 lineages with the N501Y mutation in the receptor binding domain of the spike protein have rapidly become prevalent in the UK. We estimated that the earlier 501Y lineage without amino acid deletion Δ69/Δ70 circulating mainly between early September to mid-November was 10% (6-13%) more transmissible than the 501N lineage, and the currently dominant 501Y lineage with amino acid deletion Δ69/Δ70 circulating since late September was 75% (70-80%) more transmissible than the 501N lineage.
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Mutation Landscape of SARS-CoV-2 in Africa
Nassir, Musanabaganwa, Mwikarago
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.20.423630
Abstract: COVID-19 disease has had a relatively less severe impact in Africa. To understand the role of SARS CoV2 mutations on COVID-19 disease in Africa, we analysed 282 complete nucleotide sequences from African isolates deposited in the NCBI Virus Database. Sequences were aligned against the prototype Wuhan sequence (GenBank accession: NC_045512.2) in BWA v. 0.7.17. SAM and BAM files were created, sorted and indexed in SAMtools v. 1.10 and marked for duplicates using Picard v. 2.23.4. Variants were called with mpileup in BCFtools v. 1.11. Phylograms were created using Mr. Bayes v 3.2.6. A total of 2,349 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) profiles across 294 sites were identified. Clades associated with severe disease in the United States, France, Italy, and Brazil had low frequencies in Africa (L84S=2.5%, L3606F=1.4%, L3606F/V378I/=0.35, G251V=2%). Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) accounted for only 3% of P323L and 4% of Q57H mutations in Africa. Comparatively low infections in SSA were attributed to the low frequency of the D614G clade in earlier samples (25% vs 67% global). Higher disease burden occurred in countries with higher D614G frequencies (Egypt=98%, Morocco=90%, Tunisia=52%, South Africa) with D614G as the first confirmed case. V367F, D364Y, V483A and G476S mutations associated with efficient ACE2 receptor binding and severe disease were not observed in Africa. 95% of all RdRp mutations were deaminations leading to CpG depletion and possible attenuation of virulence. More genomic and experimental studies are needed to increase our understanding of the temporal evolution of the virus in Africa, clarify our findings, and reveal hot spots that may undermine successful therapeutic and vaccine interventions.
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Major new lineages of SARS-CoV-2 emerge and spread in South Africa during lockdown
Tegally, Wilkinson, Lessells et al
doi: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.28.20221143v1
Abstract: In March 2020, the first cases of COVID-19 were reported in South Africa. The epidemic spread very fast despite an early and extreme lockdown and infected over 600,000 people, by far the highest number of infections in an African country. To rapidly understand the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in South Africa, we formed the Network for Genomics Surveillance in South Africa (NGS-SA). Here, we analyze 1,365 high quality whole genomes and identify 16 new lineages of SARS-CoV-2. Most of these unique lineages have mutations that are found hardly anywhere else in the world. We also show that three lineages spread widely in South Africa and contributed to ∼42% of all of the infections in the country. This included the first identified C lineage of SARS-CoV-2, C.1, which has 16 mutations as compared with the original Wuhan sequence. C.1 was the most geographically widespread lineage in South Africa, causing infections in multiple provinces and in all of the eleven districts in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), the most sampled province. Interestingly, the first South-African specific lineage, B.1.106, which was identified in April 2020, became extinct after nosocomial outbreaks were controlled. Our findings show that genomic surveillance can be implemented on a large scale in Africa to identify and control the spread of SARS-CoV-2.
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Emergence and rapid spread of a new severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) lineage with multiple spike mutations in South Africa
Tegally, Wilkinson, Giovanetti et al
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.21.20248640
Summary: Continued uncontrolled transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in many parts of the world is creating the conditions for significant virus evolution. Here, we describe a new SARS-CoV-2 lineage (501Y.V2) characterised by eight lineage-defining mutations in the spike protein, including three at important residues in the receptor-binding domain (K417N, E484K and N501Y) that may have functional significance. This lineage emerged in South Africa after the first epidemic wave in a severely affected metropolitan area, Nelson Mandela Bay, located on the coast of the Eastern Cape Province. This lineage spread rapidly, becoming within weeks the dominant lineage in the Eastern Cape and Western Cape Provinces. Whilst the full significance of the mutations is yet to be determined, the genomic data, showing the rapid displacement of other lineages, suggest that this lineage may be associated with increased transmissibility.
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Early transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in South Africa: An epidemiological and phylogenetic report
Giandharia, Pillaya, Wilkinson et al
Int J Infect Dis（2020）11, 128
doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.11.128
Abstract: Objectives: The Network for Genomic Surveillance in South Africa (NGS-SA) was formed to investigate the introduction and understand the early transmission dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in South-Africa.
Design: This paper presents the first results from this group, which is a molecular epidemiological study of the first 21 SARS-CoV-2 whole genomes sampled in the first port of entry – KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) –during the first month of the epidemic. By combining this with calculations of the effective reproduction number (R), it aimed to shed light on the patterns of infections in South Africa.
Results: Two of the largest provinces – Gauteng and KZN – had a slow growth rate for the number of detected cases, while the epidemic spread faster in the Western Cape and Eastern Cape. The estimates of transmission potential suggested a decrease towards R = 1 since the first cases and deaths, but a subsequent estimated R average of 1.39 between 6–18 May 2020. It was also demonstrated that early transmission in KZN was associated with multiple international introductions and dominated by lineages B1 and B. Evidence for locally acquired infections in a hospital in Durban within the first month of the epidemic was also provided.
Conclusion: The COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa was very heterogeneous in its spatial dimension, with many distinct introductions of SARS-CoV2 in KZN and evidence of nosocomial transmission, which inflated early mortality in KZN. The epidemic at the local level was still developing and NGS-SA aimed to clarify the dynamics in South Africa and devise the most effective measures as the outbreak evolved.
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Brief report: New Variant Strain of SARS-CoV-2 Identified in Travelers from Brazil
January 12, 2021
National Institute of Infectious Diseases, JAPAN
Technical detail: The variant isolate (GISAID ID: EPI_ISL_792680 to 792683) belongs to B.1.1.248 lineage and has 12 mutations in the spike protein, including N501Y and E484K. - N501Y is a mutation found in variant strains including VOC-202012/01 and 501Y.V2, implicated to increase transmissibility. - The E484K was reported to be an escape mutation from a monoclonal antibody which neutralize SARSCoV-2 (1,2). The E484K has been observed in variant isolates escaping from convalescent plasma (3) and with a 10-fold decrease in neutralization capability by convalescent plasma (4)(both in preprint articles), suggesting possible change in antigenicity. - In Brazil, a variant isolate with E484K belonging to B.1.1.248 was reported on January 6, 2021 (5), but it is not identical to the new variant isolate identified in Japan.
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Researchers Discover New Variant of COVID-19 Virus in Columbus, Ohio
January 13, 2021
The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center
Scientists at The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and College of Medicine have discovered a new variant of SARS-Cov-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. The new variant carries a mutation identical to the U.K. strain, but it likely arose in a virus strain already present in the United States. The researchers also report the evolution of another U.S. strain that acquired three other gene mutations not previously seen together in SARS-CoV2.
